State of the System – 2026 Winter Outlook Briefing 22 April 2026 This winter's state of the system will be delivered in two distinct parts Topic Presenter 1.1 Eskom’s strategic focus areas beyond winter Dan Marokane 1 1.2 Eskom’s Generation performance and supply outlook Bheki Nxumalo 1.3 Progress in resolving load reduction Agnes Mlambo 2.1 NTCSA Board Chairperson Opening Remarks Priscillah Mabelane 2.2 System Operator Update: Winter Outlook 2 Part 2: NTCSA Part 2: NTCSA 2.3 Progress in expanding the Grid (Transmission Development Plan) Monde Bala 2.4 South African Wholesale Energy Market (SAWEM) Readiness Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom - Eskom’s strategic focus areas Eskom’s generation performance and supply outlook - Eskom’s generation performance and supply outlook Eskom’s Distribution interventions - Eskom’s Distribution interventions Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA Conclusion ▪ Conclusion 4 In addition to ending load shedding, Eskom has accomplished several significant milestones that have positively impacted South Africa’s overall recovery DM Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improved from ~55% in FY2023 to ~65.16% in FY2026, exceeding 70% more than 83 times during the 2025/6 (for all the commercial units). Significant improvement in 1 unplanned outages from 16.5 GW – 9.4 GW. No loadshedding for more than 341 days (22 Apr 2026) S&P Global Ratings upgraded Eskom’s credit rating for the first time in over a decade, citing 2 sustained operational improvement and financial discipline. Reduced diesel (OCGTs) expenditure by 62.46% (R10.64 bn less) compared to the previous financial year Eskom Board reconstituted with skilled professionals, blending continuity with new technical, 3 financial, and governance expertise Certified as a Top Employer for the second consecutive year, reflecting Eskom’s commitment to 4 the growth, well-being, and empowerment of employees to contribute meaningfully to our mission of powering South Africa Eskom is now able to be responsive with interventions to support industries under distress 5 in order to support economic activities (particularly ferro alloy industries) We remain committed to implementing interventions that tackle systemic challenges and promote long-term sustainability DM Satisfactory progress Requires further intervention Ongoing development Operational Financial Sustainability Systemic issues • Improving plant performance requiring • Weak balance sheet due to high debt • Outdated vertically integrated business model focus to ensure sustainable security of supply burden • The need to transition into clean energy • Grid constraints to connect additional • Suboptimal electricity tariff structure • Prevalent fraud, corruption and criminality capacity • Revenue pressure – non-payment & • Lack of adherence to internal controls and • Dysfunctional organizational culture declining sales ineffective combined assurance • Reduce trips, improve outage planning to • National Treasury debt relief programme • Drive legal separation process of Eskom sustain Generation performance and – unbundle Transmission, Distribution & • Municipal debt interventions reliability Generation Interventions • Improving revenue collection and cost • Customer service reliability improvements • Pursue clean energy project pipeline, JET optimisation initiatives led to improved customer experience – including partnerships • Curtailment and grid capacity allocation rules • Drive to reduce electricity costs through FBE • Enhance governance and controls to curb • Transmission Development Plan execution • and government funded microgrids fraud, corruption and criminality • Appoint strong and inspirational leaders (at • Migrate towards unbundled cost reflective all levels) tariff structure • High performance & values driven culture Footnote: JET – Just Energy Transition 6 Eskom’s plant improvement and expected new capacity indicate electricity will not constrain 2% GDP growth to 2030, delivery of new capacity beyond that is crucial DM Electricity supply outlook assuming growth in demand (TWh) Insights IRP base demand (~2% GDP growth) Eskom supply potential (including S34 IPP purchases) Assumed additional capacity by FY2031 Private sector supply (Wind and PV) • Increase in available Eskom capacity due to new Delivery on expected private sector capacity projects and improved availability of projects becomes critical by FY31 current fleet (5.5GW Renewables and BESS, 3GW 350 339 phased gas and EAF improvement to 70%) 335 330 323 • IRP expects total of 32GW to come online by 300 293 55 59 2030 (including Eskom new capacity): 50 61 34 • 18GW Wind and Solar PV (primarily from 250 committed private sector projects) • 4GW storage (primarily publicly procured) 200 • 6GW of gas (Eskom and IPPs) 150 • 4.5GW of embedded generation (Rooftop 272 281 280 269 PV) 258 100 Risks to be managed: • Plant flexibility of coal generators and 50 peaking capacity to accommodate increased Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) 0 • Execution challenges with new capacity FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 1: Despite shutdown of 5 stations by FY30, Eskom’s existing fleet available capacity grows due to improved availability projections, and new RE, BESS and gas capacity 2: Assumes that all coal stations operate at 90% energy utilisation factor, includes supply from S34 IPPs and imports/wheeling; 3: IRP 2024 public consultations; 4: Includes production required for network losses and exports/wheeling; 5: Assuming 25% LF for PV plants and 35% LF for Wind (in line with SA actuals over past 5 years); Assumes 1:1 correlation between GDP and electricity growth in short-med term; Analysis indicative as new capacity outlooks shift 7 Managing emerging system risks from 2030 will require coordination and sufficient buffer to ensure security of supply DM ~27 GW of coal plant shut down between 2030 and 2042 presents system risks which need to be managed accordingly GW Current coal shutdown plan 2035 coal shutdown delays Expected other firm capacity ramp up 180 2030 coal shutdown delays Post 2035 coal shutdown delays Expected VRE ramp up 168 • The IRP 2025 outlines the interventions to prevent risk 162 of 8GW of firm capacity shut down through the 160 delivery of 6GW of gas and 3.7GW of BESS (primarily IPPs) capacity by 2030 140 132 • Historical delays in IPP delivery of projects (<50% 120 87 13GW firm capacity 97 capacity delivered against IRP 2019 requirements) and 6GW additional firm retained by 2045 if current challenges with gas capacity (EIA), presents 101 100 64 capacity retained by Lethabo, Tutuka, a risk that the firm capacity ramp up could be delayed 2035 by delaying Duvha Matimba, Kendal and 8GW firm capacity retained in 2030 if and Matla shutdowns Majuba are in operation • During this transitionary period, risks to security of 80 39 68 Arnot, Camden, Grootvlei, Hendrina and supply (due to project delays) outweigh the implications Kriel shutdowns delayed of excess capacity and need to be carefully managed. 60 17 21 27 43 • Risk adjusted ramp down of coal plants and 11 45 40 6 preservation process is required to mitigate 8 9 security of supply risks 20 41 13 32 26 • Appropriate market design and tariff structures are 17 12 critical to ensure equitable distribution of the cost (risk 0 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 premium) of ensuring security of supply % VRE2 42% 55% 59% 63% Certain countries experience grid stability challenges at ~40% VRE, back up plan required to mitigate risks • SA must ensure a consistent and achievable pace of transition - ensuring trade-offs are understood, transition costs are acknowledged, and accountability is shared • Planning for potential delayed coal shutdowns to support security of supply as alternative firm capacity ramps up will be prudent Footnote: 1. Shares in the figure are for illustration purposes only; 2: Calculated without additional capacity from potential coal delays; 3: Continued Operations; 4: Gas, Nuclear, Hydro and Storage; 5: Wind and Solar PV; Other Zero Carbon, e.g. Hydro; VRE – Variable Renewable Energy; SMR – Small Modular Reactor; CCUS – Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage; BESS – Battery Energy Storage System. Sources: IRP 2025; S&P BI Analysis (IRP new build only goes to 2042) 8 Eskom supports an orderly, rules-based transition to a liberalised electricity market to ensure energy security DM Key Rule / Principle What Eskom is advocating for Why this is important • Revised Electricity Pricing Policy that supports the transition to • Prevents distorted signals and protects investment certainty by separating competitive wholesale and retail energy markets. monopoly and competitive pricing. Competitive market aligned • Clear rules for legacy-cost recovery, hedges and pricing transparency. • Clarifies competitive price formation and protects against market shocks. pricing policies • Defined transition path supported by vesting contracts to avoid price • Provides a stable, coherent foundation for retail codes, tariffs, and shocks at market opening. settlement rules. • Replacement of outdated wholesale-tariff model with a wholesale • Ensures sustainable wholesale cost recovery by unbundling fixed costs into cost-recovery framework aligned to market structure and vesting non-bypassable charges, preventing uneconomic bypass. Fair wholesale cost-recovery design. • Promotes a competitively neutral market by ensuring all grid-connected rules • Transparent pass-through rules and non-bypassable charges to customers contribute equitably to infrastructure, system operations, and regulatory arbitrage. legacy costs. • Development of a full Retail Market Code covering retail supply, • Prevents customer harm and retailer disputes as competition expands, customer eligibility, billing, data access and market conduct, enabling a stable rollout of retail competition. Retail rulebook supported by a robust Retailer of Last Resort framework. • Ensures supply continuity if a retailer fails (important given municipal • A strong consumer protection through transparent charges, dispute arrears). resolution, and defined service standards. • Provides the rules for a stable, trusted retail market. • Government-led municipal debt interventions (e.g. DAA) • Maintains settlement cashflows and prevents subsidy bypass. implementing both interim measures and long-term reforms • Protects vulnerable customers and incumbent retailers. Address systemic payment & • A clear national subsidy framework with non-bypassable recovery for • Reduces systemic risk ahead of SAWEM Day 1. social policy constraints Free Basic Electricity social protection and cross-subsidies. • Transparent reporting and safeguards to protect wholesale-settlement cashflows during the transition Liberalisation without the establishment of appropriate rules and principles poses significant risks, including operational failure, settlement disputes, and a potential loss of 9 confidence in the reform process DM Eskom will continue to drive key short and medium-term focus areas to support security of supply in South Africa Sustaining reliable generation performance 1 Prioritising maintenance and improving the reliability of existing power stations to ensure consistent security of electricity supply Adding flexible and diversified capacity 2 Deliver renewable energy, gas, storage and nuclear initiatives to diversify the energy mix and support a stable, resilient power system Expanding and strengthening the national grid 3 Accelerating transmission and distribution expansion to relieve grid constraints and unlock new generating capacity from all participants Delivering a just and inclusive energy transition 4 Balancing decarbonisation with energy security and socio-economic aspects, through pursuing clean coal technologies and other repurposing and repowering projects 10 Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom Eskom’s strategic focus areas - Eskom’s strategic focus areas - Eskom’s generation performance and supply outlook Eskom’s Distribution interventions - Eskom’s Distribution interventions Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA Conclusion ▪ Conclusion 11 Unplanned outages have been gradually improving since 2023, going below 10 GW mark BN Eskom Gx actual performance on unplanned losses across outlook periods1 Summer 2025/26 UCLF monthly performance Actual average unplanned losses (GW) Winter: Apr – Aug Actual average unplanned losses (GW) Improvement of Summer: Sept - Mar ~7.1GW compared to unplanned losses in winter 70,2 65,7 68,2 68,9 71,0 68,3 66,6 2023 -7,1 EAF % 16,5 14,9 10,5 12,4 12,5 13,0 8,8 9,2 9,5 9,9 9,5 8,3 9,4 Winter 2023 Summer Winter 2024 Summer Winter 2025 Summer Sept-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 end Mar-26 Insights • No loadshedding has been implemented since 15 May 2025 (341 days on 22 April 2026); improved reliability of the power system with an EAF of ~66,6% for March 2026 • The FY2026 Year End (YE) EAF of 65.16% is ~5% point higher compared to FY2025 YE EAF of 60.60%. FY2026 year end unplanned outage level (UCLF) of 22.88%, showing an improvement in performance relative to the previous financial year (26,05%). • YE diesel spend of R6.4 billion, reflecting a 62.46% reduction year-on-year and a significant underspend against the annual budget • Improved performance sustained through initiatives from the Generation Operational Reliability and Sustainability plan, building on the positive momentum gained under the Generation Recovery Plan 12 Source: Eskom GPSS daily report (All stations commercial on graph) MTD and YE as of 31 March 2026; MTD EAF insights and values refers to official value 1. UCLF+OCLF, Numbers vary marginally over reports as data 12 is refined.. Acronyms: EAF: Energy Availability Factor; Gx – Generation; UCLF – Unplanned Capability Loss Factor; Factor; MTD – Month-to-date; Over 341 consecutive days of supply since May 2025, accompanied by a substantial decrease in diesel costs compared to previous financial year BN Overview of loadshedding intensity and frequency between Winter 2023 and Winter 2025 # of days at various stages Summer: September to March ▪ Delivered 341¹ days of uninterrupted Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 6 Winter: April to August power supply to South Africa, with loadshedding last implemented on 15 May 176 2025 16 153 6 ▪ Reduced diesel (OCGTs) 24 expenditure by 62.46% (R10.64 bn 39 less) compared to the previous financial year, with utilisation since January 2026 14 being virtually zero 67 3411 days without loadshedding delivered ▪ The unplanned losses (YTD) are on a 42 downward trajectory since June 2025, and achieved values lower than experienced in FY23, FY24 and FY25 for Mar 2026 55 59 13 2 ▪ Over the Summer 2025/26 period, 1 4 3 4 3 7 Eskom had ~6GW3 of coal power stations in cold reserve, indicating a Winter 2023 Summer Winter 2024 Summer Winter 2025 Summer 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 healthy reserve margin to ensure sufficient electricity supply for South Africa 1: As at 22 April 2026 ; EAF: Energy Availability Factor 13 Generation is embedding the gains from it’s Recovery Plan and implementing key initiatives to drive longer term Operational Reliability and Sustainability BN EAF¹ (%) Implementation complete ❑ Implementation in progress 70%¹ 68% 66% ❑ Continue to execute mid-life refurbishment and ❑ Execute mid-life refurbishment and MES ❑ Koeberg Long Term Operation for 20 years (FY26-FY27) MES projects (Lethabo C&I and ESP, Matimba C&I and projects (Lethabo C&I & NOx, Matimba unit C&I MVSG, Kendal ESP, Majuba NOx, Tutuka MVSG, ESP and MVSG, Kendal Unit MVSG, Majuba Nox & ❑ Commercial operation of Kusile 6 (unit synchronised and NOx) C&I, Tutuka C&I & MVSG) in March 2025) & Medupi 4 return to service after generator failure ❑ Strategic partnerships with OEMs and international ❑ Focus on skills relevant to the shift towards utilities ❑ IRP approved with the inclusion of LDES, Nuclear and renewables and clean energy, aligning to the Renewables ❑ Technical exchange training programs with OEM’s Repurposing and Repowering plans ❑ Implement people, plant and process interventions and international utilities to address root causes leading to unreliability (identified in FY25/26) ❑ Continuing Human capital initiatives (insourcing, training, pipelining, supervisors and generation ❑ Address critical plant areas with issues cutting technical leadership program, executive across multiple stations and Focus on reducing unit leadership development, etc) with the priority being trips e.g. mills, turbine, ash plant and cooling towers on Technical skills ❑ Improve outage planning and execution (63 planned ❑ Embed Operational excellence principles focus on Outages for FY2026) leading indicators of unreliability (trips, spares value ❑ Execute MES related refurbishment projects chain, quality, continuous improvement) (Lethabo, Kendal, Tutuka ESP refurbishments) Underpinned by the Operational Reliability & Sustainability Plan focus areas: 1 Reduce number 2 Improve Outage 3 Execute key 4 Enhance People, Plant, of trips planning and execution strategic projects Process Mindset Footnote 1: Discussions in progress with the Ministry with regards to the final EAF target for FY26 Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom Eskom’s strategic focus areas - Eskom’s strategic focus areas Eskom’s generation performance and supply outlook - Eskom’s generation performance and supply outlook - Eskom’s Distribution interventions Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA Conclusion ▪ Conclusion 15 Progress is also being made to eliminate load reduction, its implementation remains necessary to protect the lives of customers and electrical equipment AM Current status On track to eliminate load reduction by March 2027 # of feeders with load reduction1 Remaining by October 2026 Remaining by March 2027 55 0 0 553 71 355 0 0 0 3 0 0 9 130 0 0 72 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Load reduction reduced from 529 MW to ~440MW2 since Sept 2025, through targeted ✓ 624 feeders addressed resolving EC, ✓ Total of 971 feeders addressed, interventions on over 200 feeders across all NW, MP and LP (with significant resolving load reduction over all provinces reduction in GP and KZN) remaining provinces Key focus areas to resolve load reduction • Interventions are being implemented to upgrade metering infrastructure including ~1.69 m smart meters in the load reduction areas by Mar 2027, reducing equipment failure, zero-buyers and addressing illegal vending • Collaborating with Department of Electricity and Energy to strengthen community participation mechanisms to mitigate ongoing challenges • Additional supporting levers to reduce load reduction include ensuring Free Basic Electricity (FBE) covers all indigent beneficiaries and rolling out of distributed energy resources 1: As of 2 March 2026; 2: Average between Oct – Dec 2025 (Morning + evening peak) 16 Initiatives in the Distribution sector are intended to increase electrification and enhance customer experience AM Grid electrifications Insights # connections 73 742 • 67 578 grid connections were completed in FY261, with 63 671 2 119 households connected via DERs with electrification volumes projected to rise to 73 742 by FY31. 41 340 42 818 44 503 43 499 • Distribution aims to deliver 1 714 km of lines and 1 110 MVA of capacity by FY31 to support growth, DER integration and network reliability. • Customer-centric modernisation is progressing, including USSD,WhatsApp Alfred and Customer Engagement FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 App. Interactive Voice Response upgrades and customer accessibility has been significantly Electric Vehicles purchased expanded via re-opened service hubs and the introduction of Hubs-on-Wheels in FY26. # purchased 572 • Planned enhancements include a unified customer platform, 473 440 437 AI-enabled contact centres, a new CRM system, improved 409 customer data, and completion of smart-meter rollout. • 610 223 smart meters installed by March 2026 toward the FY26 target of 800 000; Distribution plans to install 2 million smart meters in FY27 and 3.4 million in FY28, enabled by 72 the Smart Meter Operations Centre (SMOC). • EV deployment accelerated in FY26, with purchases FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 planned to scale to 572 EVs by FY31, supported by charging infrastructure and renewable supply at charging sites Footnote: DER – Distributed Energy Resources; USSD – Unstructured Supplementary Service Data.; AI- Artificial intelligence 17 Implementing sustainable solutions to arrest municipal debt and electricity theft is critical to ensure a sustainable electricity supply industry AM • Eskom and Government collaborating on alternative Arrear municipal and metro debt growth solutions, including distribution agency agreements R billion (DAAs) and prepaid supply models • DAAs will support municipalities in ensuring sustainable 360 Could escalate to local service delivery while contributing to Eskom’s >R300bn by FY2031 if financial sustainability through improved billing and 340 unabated revenue collection. 140 • Municipal cumulative arrear debt balance for the +18% 120 municipalities is R111.6bn, with a FY26 net growth of +1 810% +27% R17.0bn. Interventions continue, including National Treasury 100 debt relief processes and DAAs in place with 3 of the top 358.0 80 defaulting municipalities. Key actions in this period include issuing of 14 PAJA notices. 111.6 60 94.6 40 • In FY26 the total distribution electricity losses 74.4 reduced to 19.7 TWh from 20.5TWh in FY25. 58.5 44.8 35.3 20 28.0 19.9 13.6 • Interventions include: smart meter rollout, improved 9.4 6.0 5.0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2031 analytics, normalising illegal connections, and disconnecting projection zero-buyer PPUs • Enhancing Free Basic Electricity (FBE) allocations and strengthening community partnerships will support Eskom will continue collaboration with Government to ensure municipal debt and energy loss compliance, reduce losses, and improve network challenges are addressed sustainability 18 Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA - NTCSA Board Chair Opening Remarks System Operator winter outlook - System Operator winter outlook Progress in expanding the Grid (TDP) - Progress in expanding the Grid (TDP) SAWEM readiness - SAWEM readiness Conclusion ▪ Conclusion 20 Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA NTCSA Board Chair Opening Remarks - NTCSA Board Chair Opening Remarks - System Operator winter outlook Progress in expanding the Grid (TDP) - Progress in expanding the Grid (TDP) SAWEM readiness - SAWEM readiness Conclusion ▪ Conclusion 21 MB No loadshedding (LS) is expected over the coming winter period if unplanned losses remain below 14 000MW (likely scenario of 12 000MW) Likely scenario Winter 2026: 1 April to 31 August 2026 (153 days) Base Case: Base Case + 1 000MW: Base Case + 2 000MW: Scenarios 12 000MW UCLF 13 000MW UCLF 14 000MW UCLF Number of LS days 0 Days 0 Days 0 days OCGT costs1 R 0 bn R 0 bn R 0 bn Highest stage of LS - - - Month Peak Loadshedding Max Loadshedding Max Loadshedding Max Residual days Loadshedding days Loadshedding days Loadshedding Forecast stage stage stage April 24 871 0 0 0 0 0 0 May 26 902 0 0 0 0 0 0 June 27 028 0 0 0 0 0 0 July 27 651 0 0 0 0 0 0 August 26 925 0 0 0 0 0 0 • Improved availability of Eskom’s fleet resulted in the base case for unplanned losses reducing to 12GW (13GW assumed in previous outlook) • Forecasted demand is ~10% lower than the previous winter outlook (from ~30GW in 2025 to ~27GW in 2026) • Planned maintenance of ~4892MW is slightly lower than levels of maintenance of 5 293MW in the previous winter period • The above culminates in Eskom forecasting surplus peak capacity of >5GW over the winter 2026 period • Projected OCGT excludes minimum offtake to meet contractual obligations with IPP OCGTs Note: The Capacity Plan 12 February 2026 utilised, with an unplanned assumption of 12 000MW. Acronyms: UCLF – Unplanned Capability Loss Factor 22 It is important to note that the Weekly System Status report is not a loadshedding forecast, but only reflects potential reserve shortfalls without considering the available short term reserve and demand side levers MB Positive Progress: 26GW already forward booked, exceeding IRP 2025 renewable requirements ahead of 2030 schedule Generation customer connections data dashboard MW by technology per supply area Utility-scale PV and Wind Budget Generation Budget Quotation (BQ) Quotations (BQ) 600 100 80 600 No. of projects Total MW No. of projects Total MW 1,960 150 332 31 706 273 26 383 3,510 1,847 3,352 3,164 2,858 120 500 2,210 1,663 1,452 570 780 480 50 400 MW by status MW by status Western Hydra Central Northern Free State Limpopo Eastern Cape North West Gauteng Mpumalanga KwaZulu Cape Cape Natal CSP Hybrid PV Wind BQ issued BQ issued Insights • The NTCSA has 31.7GW of generation customer connections currently in progress 2,297 (Budget Quotation phase and beyond), demonstrating a robust and real grid connection Execution 2,810 5,727 (9%) Execution 5,656 (9%) 10,813 pipeline (18%) 15,416 (21%) (41%) (49%) • 26GW of utility-scale PV and wind capacity, is significantly exceeding the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 renewable energy targets 7,752 7,617 (24%) • 7.7GW of projects are already connected (29%) Operational BQ development • These figures provide a clear and reliable window into actual market execution against BQ development Operational IRP policy objectives, based on committed projects rather than speculative interest • Significant progress has been made towards achieving the IRP 2025 renewable energy requirements Current forecasts indicate oversubscription for Solar PV, however greater focus required to ensure delivery against forecasts and expediting BESS procurement 23 MB Improving generation flexibility, accelerating gas and battery storage is critical to support the growth in Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) penetration Demand vs. supply overview of typical day in 2028 ▪ Medium term system outlook illustrates the importance of flexible generation (like gas-to-power and storage) and a balanced approach to capacity 35 35 expansion, as variable renewable energy penetration Gas Turbine BESS Pump Storage Residual load results in increased dumped energy forecasts 30 30 ▪ Annual dumped energy can increase to over 5TWh by 2028 if all planned Solar PV projects materialise 25 25 ▪ Dumped or excess energy must be minimised in Dip in midday order to ensure cost-efficiency of electricity supply 20 residual demand 20 in South Africa due to Solar PV Minimum Coal and GW Nuclear generation generation required over midday to ▪ NTCSA will continue with key initiatives to manage 15 15 be available over peak the variability risk and associated impact on cost- Dumped energy efficiency, including: 10 10 Coal (22GW) and ▪ Improving flexibility of the existing generators Nuclear (2GW) to 5 support peak 5 ▪ Investing in Battery Energy Storage and demand management programmes 0 0 ▪ Advocating for cost reflective tariffs to ensure 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 correct price signals are sent to consumers and Hour suppliers (current energy dominant tariff does not adequately incentivise flexibility) FINANCIAL OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 24 MB Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA NTCSA Board Chair Opening Remarks - NTCSA Board Chair Opening Remarks System Operator winter outlook - System Operator winter outlook - Progress in expanding the Grid (TDP) SAWEM readiness - SAWEM readiness Conclusion ▪ Conclusion 25 MB TDP delivery requires a step-change in the NTCSA and industry capacity to deliver on one of South Africa’s largest capital programmes Transmission network rollout (TDP 2024) 132 650 Insights MVA 132 650 31 005 • A total of 4 000 MVA was commissioned in the Delivered previous financial year (FY26) against a target of 3 4 000 21 000 18 735 17 130 750MVA MVA 16 375 9 300 2 620 7 000 • A total of 270.8 km of transmission lines were 5 815 2 540 3 750 constructed in the previous financial year (FY26) against a target of 423 km - primarily driven by FY2025 FY2026 FY2027 FY2028 FY2029 FY2030 FY2031 FY2032 FY2033 FY2034 Total contractor financial constraints and • Cumulative Planned MVA (FY 26) = 6 290MVA underperformance on several projects. • Cumulative Actual MVA (FY 26) = 6 620MVA Line km 14 494 • The target for the current financial year (FY27) is 2 181 2 183 to construct 550 km of transmission lines and 2 122 2 133 1 895 commission 7 000 MVA of transformer 1 662 capacity Delivered 270.8 km 1 058 • Considerable progress has been made on key 293 423 550 enablement initiatives i.e. Owner’s Engineer (OE) 286 panel contracts, Engineer, Procure and Construct (EPC) lines and substation contracts, transformer FY2025 FY2026 FY2027 FY2028 FY2029 FY2030 FY2031 FY2032 FY2033 FY2034 Total contracts, the line construction incubation • Cumulative Planned km (FY 26) = 709 km programme, steel suppliers etc. for the delivery of • Cumulative Actual km (FY 26) = 563 km the TDP The ERAA supports the fast-tracking of the TDP by introducing a procurement mechanism that enables the Minister of Electricity and Energy to acquire new transmission infrastructure through ITPs. Footnote: TDP – Transmission Development Plan, ERAA – Electricity Regulation Amendment Act. CEL: Cost Estimate Letter; BQ: Budget Quotation; ITP: Independent Transmission Projects 26 MB Key enablers to ensure successful delivery of the TDP Challenges Progress Mitigations ▪ Further scaling of contractor pool and Line • Current local industry capacity is • Incubation programme commenced , 2 companies have incubation of additional companies Construction approximately 800 km per annum. successfully completed the programme. required • The required build-out rate averages 1450 • EPC lines and substation engineering panel contract Capacity ▪ Support for localisation incentives to km per year and peaks at 2183 km. established. rapidly up-scale local contractor capacity. • The NTCSA has pre-qualified 23 international factories. • Single supplier for Class 3 (not currently Commodity • Proactive sourcing - 101 Transformer panel contract • Expedited designation and support for producing) & no local supplier for Class 4. established for Class 3 transformers. local transformer manufacturing (Class 3 & Sourcing • 36–48 month lead times due to global demand. • 6 Steel suppliers were invited to prepare prototype 4). (Transformers & • Historically there was one supplier of towers. The 6 suppliers’ prototypes were completed, • Government facilitation of technology Steel) transfer and investment in local production fabricated structural steel in SA. with final inspection done. capacity. • Landowner holdouts delaying project • Projects escalated to National Energy Crisis Committee • Government to strengthen servitude Execution (Land commencement. (NECOM) for increased focus. • Servitude encroachment and informal protection measures. & Servitude • NTCSA has acquired 7,700 km of land, more than 50% Issues + Security) housing creating safety risks and access of TDP requirements which is critical in de-risking problems. projects. • Limited internal delivery capacity facing a • Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC), • NTCSA working closely with DoEE and Capacity massive TDP rollout. Owners Engineer (OE) and Independent Transmission National Treasury to advance the (Project Projects (ITPs) have been identified as mechanisms to participation of ITPs. development & assist with implementing the TDP. • Currently building full internal engineering, resources project management and delivery capacity. 27 Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA NTCSA Board Chair Opening Remarks - NTCSA Board Chair Opening Remarks System Operator winter outlook - System Operator winter outlook Progress in expanding the Grid (TDP) - Progress in expanding the Grid (TDP) - SAWEM readiness Conclusion ▪ Conclusion 28 MB Strong collaboration between NTCSA, Government, NERSA, and Industry is advancing the transition to a competitive electricity market Institutional and regulatory readiness Preparation Progress ▪ Market Ecosystem consists of many players in addition to the Market Operator (Govt, ▪ From 1 April, a day-ahead and intra-day NERSA, market participants, other trading platform is operational for internal stakeholders) participants. ▪ The Market Operator is being established with full independence, dedicated systems Wholesale ▪ This provides a controlled environment to test systems ahead of the broader market and a distinct identity. Licence T&Cs expected from NERSA soon Electricity rollout. Market in System stability and customer protection South Africa Looking ahead • The transition is phased to protect security of • Insights from the pilot phase will refine supply while introducing competition. systems, rules and governance before expansion. • No disruption to customers expected as existing supply arrangements remain in place. • Reform approach is aligned with international best practice and local system needs. • Risk management measures ensure alignment with current tariffs and limit cost impacts. Market “Go Live” to be triggered by “Ecosystem” Readiness, not a fixed date. 29 29 MB NTCSA remains focused on a reliable, flexible and equitable electricity future for South Africa ❑ System Operator winter 2026 outlook is positive: no loadshedding expected under base-case assumptions. ❑ Significant progress made in new capacity connections, with forward- booked capacity exceeding IRP 2025 targets for PV and wind, demonstrating the NTCSA's proactive grid enablement. ❑ Post 2030 system reliability is assured through front loaded TDP investments, focusing on flexibility to manage renewable variability and avoid curtailment. ❑ Progress has been achieved on TDP delivery. Key challenges in construction capacity, equipment supply, and statutory approvals are being addressed through incubation programmes, EPC contracts, and international factory pre-qualifications. ❑ Progress made on SAWEM readiness through close collaboration with Government, NERSA, and Industry; to enable the transition to a competitive wholesale electricity market. 30 Agenda Part 1: Eskom ▪ Part 1: Eskom Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Part 2: NTCSA ▪ Conclusion 31 End